to vote for favorites. Only 6 votes needed to get on the list.Conspiracy Theories are popular but mainly flawed. The primary flaw being a simple one: Secrets are difficult to keep.
The difficulty of keeping any particular secret depends on a number of things:
- How many people know
- The personalities of those who know
- How many people want to know
- The value of the knowledge
Most of the truly absurd, and strangely popular, conspiracy theories combine all four factors in such mammoth proportions as to make the resulting theory entirely implausible. They center around a secret that would involve dozens or even hundreds of people. Those in the know come from a variety of backgrounds like scientists, politicians, military and religious leaders, and of course shadowy government agencies. The secret in question is the focus of intense scrutiny from multiple sources. Finally, the value or consequences of the secret coming out are huge.
To help illustrate the difficulty of keeping a secret all you need to do is look at one that didn’t remain a secret:
Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky. In this case a small number of sexual acts that involved two people. Both of those involved had pretty good incentives to keep the secret. Yet the resulting scandal had multiple witnesses, recorded conversations, DNA evidence on a piece of clothing, and an uproar that occupied a good portion of the governments resources for months on end. The idea that significant secrets can be kept by a large numbers of people in perpetuity seems farfetched in comparison.
Most conspiracy theories also tend to have major breakdowns in either logic or common sense. Occam’s razor can be worded as: All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best. Or in a simpler modern proverb: When you hear hoofbeats think horse not zebra. Conspiracy Theories, more often than not, provide the most complex explanation of a given situation. Which does not prove them false, but it certainly puts the burden of proof firmly on their doorstep.
Particularly in modern times complex plots and major conspiracies that remain secret, or at least unprovable, seem highly unlikely. Every citizen on the street is equipped with cell phones capable of photo and video, and it seems a bit silly that anyone would pin all their hopes and plans on the idea that no one is going to post evidence of their underhanded dealings on youtube.
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